Manukau Market Wrap

Nationally, the stock availability continues to decline as expected in Winter. The volume of sales in June was not surprising and fell in June by -3.8% from the same time last year to 5,978 according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. In Auckland, the number of properties sold in June fell by -3.2% year-on-year .

There's less competition

With the lowest number of new listings for the month of June since listings records began, Auckland saw the lowest number of properties sold for two months continuing the trend we’ve seen for a few months now. Sale prices seem to have stabilised and all in all, with the lack of new listings, open homes and buyer activity is actually pretty good. The pool of buyers is still the same, there is just less to look at.

Manukau's median sale price compared to Auckland's

The median sale price for Manukau is $680,000 last month and take a 12 month average, this figure sits at $675,000 - down 2% last month however if we look at a 5 year average, this median increased to 8%. Across the country prices are still climbing, but the rate has slowed. The median sale price in Auckland remains steady with an 0.1% increase last month and over a 5 year average, has risen 7.2%.

Manukau's median days on market compared to Auckland's 

For Manukau, this number is 45 days and take a 12 month average, this drops to 39 days. The median number of days to sell a property in Auckland increased in June by 5 days from 40 to 45 - compared to the same time last year.

In summary

When do we expect to see the market come back? That’s a prediction well out of my pay grade but all the underlying factors are still in play, housing shortage, low interest rates, immigration etc. And to be fair - we are 3 years into the flattening, here in Auckland anyway. Volume started dropping in 2015, prices started to, or arguably did plateau in 2016, we’ve had a wee fall and they appear to have plateaued again now in 2019. They say on average a 4 year turnaround.Residential property sales activity looks set to tick along at the same controlled pace in the second half of the year as it has in the first, with average values growing in a restrained fashion. Other key factors to watch over the rest of 2019 include policy decisions from the Reserve Bank (e.g. LVR and bank capital rules), the landscape for investors’ returns, the potential flattening off of residential building consents, and how buildings insurance premiums might change due to risk based pricing.

The REINZ monthly property report has shown in Auckland, the number of properties sold in March fell by -18.2% year-on-year (from 2,451 to 2,006) – the lowest for the month of March since 2008.

Banks continue to remain competitive with their mortgage rates and there is a high chance of an OCR cut in the near future. However, the uncertainly surrounding the CGT (capital gains tax) legislation are having an impact on the housing market with many taking a 'wait and watch' approach.

Median house prices
Across New Zealand increased by 4.5% in March to a record $585,000, up from $560,000 in March 2018. Median house prices in Auckland were the highest Auckland has seen for three months although compared to the same time last year, this number fell by 2.7% to $856,000 – down from $880,000

Note: Auckland’s 2.7% decrease in median price to $856,000 is partly a result in the number of properties sold for more than $2 million which fell from 8.1% of the market in March 2018 to 5.5% in March 2019. This median price has just continued to hover around the $850,000 mark – the same thing we’ve seen for nearly three years now suggesting that perhaps the Auckland market has found its ‘new normal’ for the time being.

Days to Sell drops significantly since February
Auckland saw the median number of days to sell a property increased by 5 days from 37 to 42 when compared to the same time last year, but this was a drop of 15 days when comparing to the previous month.

Price Bands
The number of homes sold for less than $500,000 across New Zealand fell from 41.8% of the market (3,328 properties) in March 2018 to 38.5% of the market (2,668 properties) in March 2019.

The number of properties sold in the $500,000 to $750,000 bracket increased from 29.0% in March 2018 (2,307 properties) to 30.5% in March 2019 (2,113 properties).

At the top end of the market, properties sold for $1 million or more decreased from 15.5% in March 2018 (1,232 houses) to 14.8% in March 2019 (1,029 houses). Source

Manukau features as one of the top 10 suburbs where the property market is about to boom. Read more here.

The recent report from REINZ shows the median price for NZ in June rose by 5.7% to $560,000 up from $530,000 June last year.  However, in Auckland the median price decreased by 0.7% year-on-year to $850,000 down from $856,000 last year.

The number of properties sold across the country decreased by 1.6% to 6,034, down from 6,131 in June 2017. Auckland's annual inventory decreased by 2.4% from 8560 to 8356, - the lowest level in the past 9 months.

Bindi Norwell, REINZ chief executive, said: "The lack of housing supply continues to put pressure on prices in the majority of regions across New Zealand, with 12 out of 16 regions seeing a price increase since June last year. Until we solve the supply issue, house prices are likely to continue rising, particularly as the OCR remains low and the banks continue dropping interest rates."

Source